ka_ya_1358

It's as if all the airdrops lately are competing to see how they can avoid giving to the community. If all projects allocate 10% of their supply, 8% of that is still secretly kept for themselves in an insider manner. They give a fake 2% to a few content creators to minimize FUD. The rest is for NFT holders. The thing is, if they were to do an airdrop with so many criteria and users, no one would be happy. They're trying to eliminate as much as possible with absurd criteria. For example, if there were very few people staking W, they would probably get an airdrop. Projects already see which area has few people or what fewer people have done, and they eliminate accordingly. So, where there's a crowd, there's crap. I'll continue to do things that are done less. From now on, you should pay more attention to the number of users doing things that everyone says will get you an airdrop. NFT communities can usually get airdrops by just sitting around, yes, but there are so many collections that it becomes trash as soon as they give to more than 3 collections. They're doing airdrops to 50 collections :) Other than that, you can see that organic users who use Lighter or Hyperliquid or direct DeFi products, etc., are also getting airdrops. There's no need to take 10 cents worth of risks for a 3-cent airdrop. Chase organic opportunities in DeFi products. If there's an NFT community you like, hold it. You're already getting airdrops. Other than that, whatever we do has caused losses. And will continue to do so.

Bitcoin made a new ATH by rising to the $126,000 level, doing so by moving away from the averages and without letting those who wanted to buy in. Today, the possibility of the US government opening, the release of data, and the possibility of inflation data being released, which could lead to the Fed pausing interest rate cuts, caused the markets to move away from risk and adopt a wait-and-see approach. Let's see if the market will evaluate the possible decline as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, unlike the market in general, the BSC network, led by CZ, continues to experience its bull run. The tremendous rally it made with the support of Aster CZ resulted in a Binance listing. CZ has shown that he will not relinquish leadership in both DEX and CEX platforms.

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I previously said that Ethena Labs would be the reason for the bear market. We saw this in the recent drop. I couldn't write at length because I was sick, but I'm piecing together the reason for the drop and what you can do to protect yourself 👇 1️⃣In the drop, Trump and CZ most likely made a deal. Trump told CZ that he would do this manipulation (announcement of tariffs on China). In the drop, hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shorts were opened first. 2️⃣Trump's goal is to make money (most likely his son Barron), CZ's goal is to make money and create a lot of liquidation on Hyperliquid to make the platform look bad. Thus paving the way for ASTER. That night, approximately 3 billion dollars of liquidation took place on Binance and 10 billion dollars on Hyperliquid. 3️⃣Everything starts with someone (most likely CZ and his crew) dropping the peg of Ethena's USDe and other collateralized assets below 1. When the peg drops below 1, the loans taken out on these assets receive margin calls and are liquidated. When they are liquidated, the coins bought with the loans taken out on them also go into liquidation. In fact, the peg of these assets should have been pulled with price providers from outside Binance (price oracle - like Link), but Binance pulled the entire peg price from its own exchange. This is a mistake. It was done deliberately, and this fundamental event was manipulated. 4️⃣In order to deepen the drop or because they could no longer defend the drop, market makers are pulling the already scarce liquidity out of the coins. Because of this, the coins are seeing 0. When there was no liquidity to meet the sale, the coins hit 0. Only Binance has these zeros as far as I can see. People are also rebelling against this. 5️⃣Later, the shorts with large profits were also closed with auto deleveraging. For much less money than they profited. This is another design flaw, but it is done deliberately. 6️⃣But Hyperliquid's reputation did not end as CZ calculated, on the contrary, people solved the problem and loaded up on CZ.

I said that I expected the $3800 level to be taken in $ETH, the nonsense that happened on Friday pushed the price deeper, but there is no change in the overall structure. I think that the price may go to around $5800 in the macro sense in the coming period, and if it happens, I will liquidate all my ETH positions in parallel with my thoughts on XRP.

The presidential change from Japan yesterday was received very positively, especially for risky assets. Sanae Takaichi was elected as the leader of the LDP; she is preparing to become Japan's first female prime minister. The new leader is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies (Abenomics style). With this expectation, the Nikkei 225 rose by 5% and broke a record, the Yen weakened, and exporter stocks rallied. Markets see Takaichi as a leader who will "curb interest rate hikes and support growth." The perception that "what if Japan raises interest rates," which particularly created fear in the markets, has now turned positive. Risky assets seem to like this situation.

In past cycles, the MVRV Ratio touched overheated zones repeatedly, even when there wasn't this much adoption. Today, Bitcoin is much stronger on a global scale, but we still haven't seen a similar picture. The silence before the risk increases... No one has really gone crazy yet.

200D is $106.7k & STH cost basis is $113.7k. It will be great if BTC can go above STH cost basis in 1-2 days. 🔹 ETH risk metric has shown again that when ETH price reaches 1.8x of 200D, it's time to take profits. ▪️ Macro conditions can change very quickly. This is not similar to 2020-2021 (governments could not do much about covid but Trump can change his tone tomorrow). Still hoping for a positive Q4. Reflections & lessons for myself: 🖊️ I should have noticed that 10+ perp dexes are heavily used by retail (for points) for the last 1-2 months and it was like a hanging fruit big players to liquidate them. 🖊️ I need to reflect on how retail/degens think/act and then what politicians & market makers & exchanges can do to them to gain advantage and/or maximize their profits. ✏️ I have ~25% in stables, however they are all locked in several DeFi platforms (for yield & points). I was online & watching the market, but could not find enough time to buy $BTC below $106k. ✏️ If I'd entered my orders in time, they'd have filled easily. I should keep some dry powder for these kind of events. 🖌️ I bought $ETH around $4k with a blind order, and now I keep this position. No strategy, no entry-exit-stop plans. I noted this mistake many times, but still doing it. 🖌️ I need to keep my trading & long term portfolios separate. I keep logging every trade. Good things to note: ✨ My portfolio is 36% BTC 28% ETH 25% USD 11% alts. It was a good decision to keep my portfolio BTC & USD heavy. ✨ I'm in a good position to use/farm some of the projects (hopefully) that can TGE is Q4. I can use some of BTC, ETH as collateral to borrow/farm a bit more. ✨ If market goes up, I'm positioned in a good/acceptable way. If market goes down, I can cut losses - if BTC loses 50W support (weekly close). What's ahead? ▪️ I still believe market will recover in a few days/weeks. It's good to have good content creators & technical and onchain analysts to read & learn. Main consensus is still positive Q4 even after yesterday. ▪️ My portfolio is down 9%. This will be the case in an uptrend as well: everyone will make 3-5x while I will be up 30-50%. That's fine, I've made my peace with that. ▪️I know that I can't be on top of every trend (perps, prediction markets, privacy, etc.). I'll stick to risk metrics & DeFi & AI to make the most out of this market. ▪️ Everyone focuses on recovering from losses of yesterday. This includes projects as well. I think it's a good time to help projects (to build, share feedback, help marketing) and recover together. ▪️ We're very late at this cycle, so I don't think to buy new alts (to hodl). I will keep my BTC & ETH & USD positions, and try to find some good short term trades in Q4. ▪️ I hope I'll be able to sell my positions (except for some of BTC) when risk metrics reach >60 again.