Kalshi Taking Advantage of Users & Changing Rules

After the events today, I will be closing my Kalshi Account

The precedent set today, not honoring users & hurting a major market in its only possible outcome is gross

Prediction markets clearly need to be regulated, you can’t modify contracts as they go

For context: there was a market on when the Supreme Leader of Iran would be “out”

He ended up being deceased from a U.S. military strike during a broader campaign on their country

The only other time a “Supreme Leader” of Iran has left office is due to death, so pivoting last minute to not allowing death to me while advertising missiles & the markets odds

Seemed to me at the time to be taking advantage of his death news & many others

While I obviously would’ve preferred an outcome without death & would’ve hoped for a capture, reality is reality

It wasn’t a likely possibility and the way this market framed itself looked at face value like a market that would honor any outcome surrounding him being “out” as Supeme Leader of Iran

I could’ve gone to Polymarket & for slightly higher odds have gotten a full payout

Instead, now, many are either at base cost for a 40/60 risk or they’re at a loss from entering with later odds

Clearly, to me, platforms need clearer wording

If he’s “out as Supreme Leader” the wording suggests “out”

He’s not being assassinated Luigi Mangione style for prediction market odds, it was a formal military strike which many suspected would happen

I’m so disgusted I’m honestly put off from Prediction Markets for the near future at least

If it’s this easy to get away with not paying out a market, I can’t in good faith trust Kalshi & their futures contracts

You owe me $2,500+ & you owe many innocent, casual traders millions more

I hope this can move the space forward in a healthier and more transparent manner

Even if you didn’t “do death markets” as a last minute change,

It doesn’t hold up

If you offered a market on him being out of power, what else did you think people were betting on?

Would have you taken zero fees on this market without the immense amount of heat you’re currently getting?

If I bet on Oil prices going up on Monday, which is indirectly betting on War, is that a death market?

If I bet on Jimmy Carter not attending the Trump inauguration because he’s 90+ would you call that a death market?

Is a death market “dead by” or just anything relating to a person

How does this protect anyone but people that predicted incorrectly

Also, if you settle a market essentially the hour the conflict starts then how do you expect people to trade it

Did you think we have insider information on when this conflict would start?

I just don’t get why a platform the size of Kalshi would risk their reputation on such a large market, it seems like blatant disregard for users trust

I specifically chose to trade because of the volume caused by his possible departure & your post on the odds spiking

You chose to publicize it, knowing people would be trading it based on fresh news about the Israeli/US strikes

Do better